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A Study on the Effects of Low Birthrate and Aging Population on Housing Prices - Focusing around 25 Districts in Seoul -
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저출산, 고령화가 주택가격에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구 : 서울시 25개구를 중심으로

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Type
Academic journal
Author
Chun, Hae-Jung (성결대학교)
Journal
Residential Environment Institute Of Korea RESIDENTIAL ENVIRONMENT : JOURNAL OF THE RESIDENTIAL ENVIRONMENT INSTITUTE OF KOREA Vol.13 No.4 KCI Accredited Journals
Published
2015.12
Pages
41 - 51 (11page)

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A Study on the Effects of Low Birthrate and Aging Population on Housing Prices - Focusing around 25 Districts in Seoul -
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This study examines the effects of low birthrate and aging populations on housing prices by setting proxy variables and examined the variables as a panel data across districts. Low birthrate is proxied through youth dependency ratio and number of newborns, aging through old dependency ratio, liquidity through mortgage loans, housing supply through housing permit performance, economic growth and income growth through unemployment rate, and finally, housing prices through housing transaction price index. Time frame of the data analysis was set from 1Q of 2010 through 4Q of 2013, and spatial scope was set to 25 districts within Seoul.
Empirical analysis results show that youth dependency ratio and number of births has a positive impact (+) on housing prices, while old dependency ratio has a negative impact (-). 1% decrease in youth dependency ratio approximately translated to 3.18% decrease in housing prices, and 1% increase in old dependency ratio effected housing prices by a decrease of approximately 1.18%. Additionally, housing permit performance has a positive effect (+) and mortgage loans has a negative effect (-) which were different from the expected results. The study determines that this was one of the root causes of decline in housing prices during the global financial crisis.
#저출산 #고령화 #주택담보대출금 #주택매매가격 #패널분석 #Low birthrate #Aging #Mortgage #Housing prices #Panel analysis

Contents

Abstract
Ⅰ. 서론
Ⅱ. 선행연구 고찰
Ⅲ. 분석모형
Ⅳ. 실증분석
Ⅴ. 결론
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UCI(KEPA) : I410-ECN-0101-2016-595-002224361